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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2020–Jan 12th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Watch for changes in the surface snow as you travel through terrain and approach steep and open slopes cautiously.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries with 5-15 cm of low density snow, light to moderate wind from the southwest, alpine temperatures drop to -12 C.

SUNDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-10 cm of low density snow, light wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

MONDAY: Flurries in the morning with 5-10 of low density snow then sunny in the afternoon, light wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -15 C.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and up to 5 cm of new snow, light wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -15 C.

Avalanche Summary

Recent accumulations of low density snow resulted in several small wind slab and dry loose avalanches on Friday. A storm earlier in the week resulted in several large avalanches (size 2-3). These avalanches released on both a 100-150 cm deep surface hoar layer and in a few notable cases on deep persistent weak layers (on west, north, and northeast aspects in the alpine). Looking forward these deep layers will become less likely to trigger, but careful snowpack evaluation is still recommended.

Snowpack Summary

Low density snow continues to accumulate, with 30-50 cm of fresh light snow on the surface. Cold temperatures and light wind should preserve this snow with the exception of some higher elevation terrain where isolated wind slabs could exist. A thin crust exists in many areas 50-100 cm below the surface, and beneath that is a layer of surface hoar has been the culprit in recent large avalanches. This layer is roughly 80-120 cm deep in the Selkirks and 120-150 cm deep in the Monashees. A facet/crust layer from late November lingers near the bottom of the snowpack and has shown reactivity in isolated shallow snowpack areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Approach steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes cautiously.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.