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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 26th, 2020–Jan 27th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

A tricky snowpack. Potential for low probability/high consequence avalanches to ground in large steeper alpine terrain. Think about it before committing.

Weather Forecast

The next 4 days will bring consistently cloudy conditions with minimal precipitation expected. The winds are expected to increase to 45km out of the SW Tuesday and Wednesday. Freezing levels will remain in the valley bottom. Day time highs -6 Lows -13.

For more detailed analysis: Mountain Weather Forecast

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is highly variable across the forecast area. The snowpack remains mainly facetted, particularly in shallow areas where there is less than 60cm of snow. There is inconsistent bridging in the mid-pack over the weak basal facets and depth hoar. Today's moderate winds redistributing recent storm snow into lee features in the ALP/TL.

Avalanche Summary

Forecasters skied in Nigel basin today. A few solar induced avalanches up to size 2 observed from the past 48 hours. Otherwise no new avalanches today observed.  Hazard increased in alpine today due to the winds.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.