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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2021–Feb 15th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Though it can be found extending into the alpine, surface hoar has been most reactive at the treeline elevation where conservative decision making is ESSENTIAL. Also watch for slow to bond wind slabs in strange places due to variable wind directions and cold temperatures.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT - Partly cloudy / trace of new snow possible / light south west wind with potential for some localized moderate wind / low near -19

MONDAY - Overcast / 1-5 cm / light westerly wind / high near -12

TUESDAY - Increasing cloud / light west wind / high near -12

WEDNESDAY - Afternoon clearing possible / light westerly wind / highs near -8

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday a ski cut triggered a size 1.5 on an open feature at the treeline/alpine interface in the Lizard Range. This failed on the late January persistent surface hoar layer.

Despite the the lack of snow, there has been in increase in activity on the persistent weak layer. On Thursday and Friday there were human and remote triggered avalanches up to size 2 reported. Locations like Mount Fernie, 2000, Liverwurst and McDermid were a few location examples. Some of the avalanches were remote triggered from a distance away. Some folks submitted MINs, you can read them here.

On Wednesday there was a size 1.5 skier triggered avalanche that failed on the late January surface hoar/facet layer. It was on a south east facing slope in the Tunnel Creek area. See MIN

February has been a busy one for avalanche activity with human triggered avalanches going back well over a week that are too numerous to list. Do some research and check out the MIN reports in our region when planning your trip, click here.

Many thanks to the community for sharing information through the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

Recent northerly and shifting winds have reverse loaded features; slabs may be found in open terrain on a variety of aspects. Surface faceting and surface hoar growth is occurring with clear nights and frigid temperatures.

A persistent weak layer lurks 30-70 cm below the surface. In some places it consists of surface hoar, in other places just facets, or crust/facet combinations. This weak interface has been responsible for the majority of recent avalanches. Reports suggest the surface hoar interface at treeline is the biggest repeat offender, and things have been most reactive on northerly and easterly aspects, but don't let your guard down elsewhere.

Below 1600 m a hard melt-freeze crust is underneath 20-40 cm recent snow. A solid mid-pack sits above a deeply buried crust and facet layers near the bottom of the snowpack (150-200 cm deep), which is currently unreactive. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.