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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2025–Mar 17th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Stay vigilant, as conditions may change rapidly.

Expect significant variability based on elevation, aspect, and exposure to wind and sun.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Sat/Fri: a few small (size 1-1.5) natural and rider-triggered avalanches occurred near Castle Mtn.

Thurs: two notable cornice failures in the northern Elk Valley produced slabs on northeast facing ridges that stepped down to the persistent weak layer.

Looking ahead: Both natural and human-triggered avalanches are expected to be possible to likely on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 40 cm of storm snow has accumulated over the past few days, forming wind slabs at upper elevations. In most areas, this snow rests on a melt-freeze crust, except for high elevation north and east facing slopes.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is currently buried 50 to 100 cm deep. It has been the cause of recent large avalanches, and remains reactive in snowpack tests. The greatest concern for this weak layer is on upper-elevation northerly and easterly slopes.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with 1 to 5 cm of snow. 15 to 25 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud. 15 to 35 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. 15 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Wednesday

Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level rising to 1700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind-affected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.