Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2025–Mar 2nd, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

The snowpack will be tested once again with incoming snow, rain, winds and fluctuating freezing levels.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Today's warmer weather triggered additional new persistent slab avalanche activity up to size 2, along with numerous wet loose avalanches to size 2. Neighboring operations continue to report natural size 2-3 persistent slab activity.

As temperatures begin to cool, incoming snow or potential rain will add new load, further destabilizing the snowpack. Avalanche conditions still remain serious, even if not immediately obvious.

Snowpack Summary

Freezing levels rose to 3000m again on Sunday, creating moist surface snow. Expect crust formation, especially on solar aspects, with the overnight refreeze.

Moderate to strong winds have redistributed last week’s snow, loading leeward features while stripping alpine and exposed treeline areas.

The top 10-30cm sits over weak February facets atop old wind slabs, crusts, or depth hoar. Below 1800m, warmth has saturated the weak snowpack.

Weather Summary

Sunday evening will bring cloudy skies with some 5-10cm of new snow. Alpine temperatures will reach a low of -6 °C with light winds. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Monday could see an additional 2-4cm. Freezing levels will eventually descend throughout the day to 1600m.

Only slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the rest of the week with light winds and fairly clear skies.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Loose avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in larger avalanches.
Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.