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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2022–Jan 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Avalanche danger will increase over the day as new snow and strong winds form reactive slabs over a weak snow surface. Approach wind loaded features with caution.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

An active front shifts south bringing moderate snowfall with very strong winds.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Continued light snowfall, 10cm with strong to extreme southwest winds. 

SUNDAY: Moderate southeast winds increase over the day to strong southerlies. 5-15cm possible over the day. Alpine high of -15. 

MONDAY: Up to 10cm of snow, tapering off in the afternoon. Alpine high of -10 with light southerly winds.

TUESDAY: Chance of flurries with light southeast winds. Alpine high of -15. 

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry natural avalanches to size 1.5 were observed yesterday, caused by the continued cold and clear weather weakening snow on the surface. 

A persistent slab avalanche was observed in the region on Wednesday. It is believed to have released naturally within the last few days. It initiated around 2200 m on a steep northwest aspect. Limited information is not available due to poor visibility.

We'd appreciate if you submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network, even just a photo.

Snowpack Summary

Strong south/southwest winds and light snowfall will continue to form new slabs over the day with deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes. This load will be deposited on weak and wind effected surfaces - expect a poor bond and reactive conditions. 

Another weak layer of feathery surface hoar may be found around 20 to 50 cm deep. It is most likely found in sheltered terrain features in the lower alpine and treeline, or open features below treeline (such as cut blocks). Although we haven't received reports of this layer being a concern, it has been noted in neighbouring regions.

The early December crust sits 60-100cm deep in the snowpack up to 2000m, with a layer of weak and faceted crystals above. This layer of loose and sugary snow is causing large destructive avalanches in other regions. This layer is spatially variable in the Cariboos and may only be a problem in select parts of the region. Read more about it here. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.