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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2022–Jan 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Wind slabs may still be found in steep terrain at higher elevations. Head out with a conservative mindset and assess for slab development before committing yourself. 

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with trace snowfall, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -15 C.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -12 C.

SUNDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 20 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -0 C, freezing level rising to 2100 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural avalanches were observed in the north of the region on Thursday, which were likely triggered from the warming trend leading to Thursday night's storm. The avalanches included a few wind slabs at higher elevations in wind affected terrain, as well as an avalanche below treeline near valley bottom (see here for details). Loose wet avalanche activity was observed at lower elevations on Friday, which may have released during Thursday's overnight rain event.

Avalanche activity is expected to decrease into Saturday, although it may remain possible for humans to trigger slabs at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Thursday night's storm dropped around 10 cm of snow in the north of the region and 30 cm in the south. The snow was associated with strong southwest wind, which likely formed new wind slabs in lee terrain features. Below about 1200 m, the precipitation fell as rain, producing a hard melt-freeze crust. This recent precipitation adds to the 50+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December.

Around 80 to 200 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The last observed avalanche on this layer was around December 24, suggesting that this layer has become dormant. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.