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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2022–Feb 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Conservative terrain travel is recommended -- wind slabs exist up high and a persistent slab problem is emerging.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -14 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -10 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 to 60 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few small wind slabs were triggered naturally and by riders on Tuesday on various aspects.

Looking forward to the coming days, slab avalanche activity is expected to increase once the recent snow settles and forms a cohesive slab. Human triggering remains elevated, particularly where the snow sits on the surface hoar described in the snowpack summary.

Snowpack Summary

Around 30 to 50 cm of recent snow has been blown into wind slabs in terrain exposed to the wind at higher elevations. Wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to variable wind directions. In sheltered terrain, the snow may sit above a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. In areas where the snow has formed slab properties, this snow will be reactive to riders and will remain touchy for some time. We've received indication that the surface hoar is likely most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline (e.g., open trees, cutblocks, burns) but could extend into the alpine. The snow sits on a hard melt-freeze crust on steep sun-exposed slopes.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Watch for signs of slab formation throughout the day.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.