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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2022–Jan 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is expected Friday, and all that low density snow we've been enjoying lately is now available for entrainment. Expect avalanches to run far and fast, picking up mass as they go.

Weather Forecast

A Pacific system hitting the South Coast is driving a juicy SW flow.

Tonight: Snow (15cm). Alpine Low -13*C Moderate South ridge wind.

Friday: Snow (15cm). Alpine High -5*C. Mod gusting strong S-SW wind.

Saturday: Flurries (5cm). Low -16*C, High -7*C. Strong SW wind.

Sunday: Flurries (5cm), Sunny periods in the PM. Low -7*C, High -6*C. Strong W wind.

Snowpack Summary

15cm at publishing time, with up to 45cm of fresh storm snow forecast by Friday evening. The new snow, with warming temps and strong gusty wind, will build fresh slabs quickly over the cold snow below. The Dec 1 crust (now buried 90-150cm), has not been reactive lately despite having faceted snow above and below it (especially in shallow areas).

Avalanche Summary

Moderate snowfall, warming temps and strong winds are expected to produce natural avalanche activity overnight and through out the day Friday.

No new avalanches were observed (visibility was poor) or detected on Thursday.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.