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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 30th, 2021–Dec 31st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Avoid wind-exposed slopes and you'll likely find cold, blower pow. Wind slabs are the main avalanche concern. Consider that ANY problem could get amplified into an emergency on these cold, short days.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

Cold arctic air will persist until Saturday afternoon. The weekend weather could be quite wild, and vary greatly through the forecast region. 

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. No new snow expected. Moderate to strong northwest wind. Treeline temperatures around -8 C.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light to moderate northwest wind with possible strong winds at higher elevations. treeline temperatures around -7 C.

SATURDAY: Overcast. 2-10 cm of snow expected. Extreme southwest wind. Freezing levels rising to 500m

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 15-50 cm of snow expected overnight, with another 0-15 through the day. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1100 m overnight, dropping back to 500 during the day. 

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, our Vancouver Island field team reported a size 1, naturally triggered windslab avalanche in the Mt. Adrian area. It was 10-20 cm deep and started just below a ridge top. You can find more info from them on their facebook page, on instagram, or on the Mountain Information Network.

Windslabs can be most reactive when they are fresh, so continually evaluate conditions as you travel. 

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Earlier this week there were some reports of small (size 1) loose dry avalanches (sluffs) and some small isolated wind slab avalanches. 

Snowpack Summary

Plenty of soft, light snow available for transport, and recent northwesterly winds have created wind slabs in atypical cross-loading and reverse loading patterns. 

Sometimes wind slab stabilizes with time, or facets out with cold temperatures. In this case, continued wind and top-ups of cold, low density snow keeps building fresh slabs.

30-50 cm now sits over a freezing rain crust below 1500 m and above this elevation it may rest on a layer of large surface hoar crystals. Our field team reported easy shears on this layer in their MIN report last week. 

The lower snowpack is generally well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Approach steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes cautiously.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.