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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2022–Jan 20th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Warming, with direct sun will increase the hazard, especially on steep solar aspects, TL and below.

Sensitive cornices, wind slabs and  terrible riding conditions in the Alpine.

Weather Forecast

Thursday

Flurries: 7 cm. Temp High -4 °C. Wind W: 20 km/h gusting to 55 km/h. FZL: 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace. Temp: Low -10 °C, High -7 °C. Wind W: 15-25 km/h.

Saturday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace. Temp: Low -7 °C, High -5 °C. Wind W: 15 km/h. FZL: 1600 m

Snowpack Summary

North winds have built new and hard wind slabs in all open features, ALP and open TL. The mid-pack is highly faceted with active, persistent weak layers from Dec. Interfaces within the facets found down ~30cm and ~60cm. These layers have varied sensitivity but if triggered can build quickly into large, destructive avalanches. Cornices are building.

Avalanche Summary

Several large avalanches have been observed over the last 48 hours around the Churchill Range up to sz 2.5 and running to ground.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.