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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2022–Jan 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Daytime warming might cause cornices to weaken and fail.

Limit your exposure to terrain features effected by cornices as the day heats up.

Weather Forecast

Clear, dry days, with valley cloud and seasonal temperatures continues until Saturday.

There is an incoming storm forecast for Sunday.

Fri: Sun and cloud, Alp high -4*C, mod SW winds, fz lvl:1100m

Sat: Cloudy with sunny period, Alp high -6*C, mod SW winds

Sun: Flurries 10cm, Alp high -6*C, mod SW winds

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar growing on surface, 5-8mm BTL, 2-4mm TL and above. Variable breakable surface crust exists on S-W aspects. Wind-affect can be found at treeline and above. The Jan 20 (2-4mm) surface hoar down 35cm, and Jan 11 (2-5mm) surface hoar down 70-90cm. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down ~1.5 - 2.5m and will require a big trigger to come alive.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed along the highway corridor on Jan 27th.

Observations from Jan 26th:

We observed two natural windslab avalanches along the highway corridor, up to size 2, from north and south aspects.

Backcountry reports of numerous loose wet avalanches, size 1-1.5 off of SW faces on Ursus Minor in the Connaught Drainage.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.