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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2022–Jan 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

If you head high into the mountains to search for dry snow, watch for pockets of wind slab that are still possible to trigger. At lower elevations a thick surface crust reduces the likelihood of avalanche activity.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions and shifting freezing levels remain until Monday, when the next front approaches bringing light snow to the Coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with up to 5cm expected. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing levels around 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Freezing levels remain around 1500 m. A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Moderate winds from the west. Alpine high -1. 

SUNDAY: Freezing levels remain around 1300 m in the north. Rising to 2300 m in the south. Mainly cloudy, with strong southwest winds. Alpine high +1. 

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, with isolated flurries. Freezing levels below 1500 m. Moderate southwest winds. Alpine high of -2. 

Avalanche Summary

Recent warm temperatures and intense precipitation produced widespread natural avalanche cycles at all elevations. Lower elevations received significant rainfall and produced wet loose and slab avalanches to size 2.5.

A natural cycle to size 3 occurred in the storm snow at higher elevations where snow was less affected by rain. In the past few days, several storm slabs were triggered by skiers and riders to size 2 in steep terrain. Explosive control near Pemberton on Thursday produced numerous size 3.5 storm slabs, and some size 4 storm slabs that were estimated at 1.5 m deep. 

Snowpack Summary

Mixed precipitation and warm temperatures over the last week have created a variety of surface snow conditions. Strong southwest winds have created pockets of dry snow at alpine elevations. Precipitation fell as wet snow or rain below 2000m, creating saturated upper snowpack that has now formed a melt freeze crust with moist snow below. 

Two buried weak layers of sugary, faceted grains sit in the middle and lower snowpack, around 50cm deep and 80-200 cm deep. Early Decembers heavy rain and following cold spell formed the deeper layer of facets, that is now most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Avalanches on this layer are large, but sporadic and isolated. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas. 

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.