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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2022–Jan 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Wet snow, rain and warm temperature continue to weaken the snowpack and cornices that remain heavy and fragile. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

An upper ridge will build along the BC coast overnight into Tuesday morning bringing generally dry conditions.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with isolated wet flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 20-40 km/h westerly winds, low treeline +2 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy, no precipitation, 10-20 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +1 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5 cm, 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

THURSDAY: Periods of wet snow mixed with rain, accumulation 25-30 cm, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +2 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the weekend.

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m, forming a surface crust as temperatures cool the wet snow. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.