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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2022–Jan 24th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

It seems the snowpack has been largely resilient to warm temperatures over the weekend. But don't underestimate the power of the sun on Monday. Minimize exposure to steep sun exposed slopes, especially if they have cornices overhead.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels. Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under a warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist through the week bringing very high freezing levels and sun. 

Sunday night: Partly cloudy, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2500 m with an inversion.

Monday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2000 m with an inversion.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, light W wind, freezing levels around 2300 m with an inversion. 

Wednesday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2600 m with an inversion. 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity associated with the warming over the weekend has been minimal. On Friday and Saturday, small loose wet avalanches were observed out of steep south and east facing terrain and explosive control work produced cornices up to size 2.5. On Friday, natural and skier triggered wind slabs size 1.5-2 were reported.

Last week, some very large natural avalanches took out mature timber and left mountainous piles of debris down to very low elevations. Check out the insane photos of the size 4 in this MIN from January 15th. We were anticipating the possibility of avalanches of this scale during current warm weather but as of writing, this activity has not materialized. Parts of the region are currently under a Special Public Avalanche Warning (SPAW). Check out this new blog post for additional information.

Snowpack Summary

At mid elevations, moist surfaces or a thin crust can be found on solar aspects, while most aspects at upper elevations remain dry. Wind slabs linger in exposed high elevation terrain, mainly on north and east aspects. 

The widespread and robust January 16 melt-freeze crust sits up to 30 cm deep, as high as 2100 m. There have been some observations of surface hoar sitting on the crust on polar aspects at treeline and in the alpine north of Pemberton but this does not appear to be widespread. At lower elevations, the previously rain soaked upper snowpack is moist or wet and may be capped with a breakable crust.

The depth of the early December crust/facet layer is highly variable through the region but appears to be typically down 100-200 cm. Some operators are showing the depth as low as 60 cm in shallow snowpack areas and as deep as 3 m in wind loaded terrain. The weak layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The layer continues to be a concern through the current period of major warming and sun. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas where it is shallowest.

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.