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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2024–Mar 16th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

North Rockies, Sugarbowl, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

⚠️ Avoid all avalanche terrain ⚠️A widespread natural avalanche cycle will occur over the next few days.

Check out our latest blog about the forecasted warming.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several natural wind slab avalanches were observed on solar aspects up to size 2.5. These were likely triggered by daytime warming.

We expect to see a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the next few days. Avoid avalanche terrain and exposure from overhead hazards (open slopes, cornices) as avalanches could run full path.

Snowpack Summary

40 cm of recent storm snow is settling quickly with warm temperatures. At treeline and above, the storm snow has been redistributed by previous winds, leaving widespread wind-affected surfaces in exposed terrain. Moist snow surfaces will extend into the alpine with rising freezing levels.

A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 50 to 110 cm deep. This crust has a layer of facets above it in many areas.

The eastern portion of this region is much shallower with a highly variable and wind-affected snowpack.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly clear skies. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Alpine temperatures are around +2°C. Freezing level between 2500 and 2800 m.

Saturday

Sunny. 10 to 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Alpine temperature high near +6°C. Freezing level continues rising to 3200 m.

Sunday

Sunny. 30 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Alpine temperature high near +5°C. Freezing level around 2800 m.

Monday

Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Alpine temperatures high of +2°C. Freezing level around 2500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects, avalanches could run full-path if triggered.
  • Choose gentle slopes without steep terrain above.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.