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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2025–Dec 7th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

We are moving into Westerly flow, which means lots of snow for Rogers Pass!

If we receive more snow than is forecast, we could end up at HIGH hazard by the afternoon.

Assess conditions as the day progresses and be prepared to change your objective.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle is starting from steep areas in the alpine. Visibility is poor at the time of writing, but we suspect they are storm slabs.

A limited artillery avalanche control mission on Thursday produced small loose snow avalanches in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

About 40 cm of snow (and counting) is covering a decomposing surface hoar layer in sheltered treeline areas, a thin rime crust on all aspects, and previous wind effect in open alpine terrain.

A rain crust is down 50-80cm in the snowpack, and exists up to approximately 2200m.

Weather Summary

An Aleutian low pressure system continues to deliver snow to the region, with an intense event coming Monday night.

Tonight Flurries, 6cm. Winds SW-20km/h. Alpine low -7°C, freezing level (FZL) 900m.

Sun Flurries, 10cm. High -4 °C. FZL 800m. Wind SW 15 gusting to 60 km/h

Mon: Snow, 45cm. High -1°C, FZL 1500m. Wind SW 40-55km/h.

Tues: Flurries, 12cm. Low -7°C, FZL 1600. Wind W-40 gusting to 85km/h.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.