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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2025–Dec 15th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Stormy weather continues, bringing strong winds and up to 90 mm of precipitation as rain or snow by Monday afternoon.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several size 2-2.5 explosive-triggered slabs occurred in the Duffey area. They were suspected of having stepped down to the mid-November persistent weak layer.

The incoming storm is expected to greatly increase the likelihood of both natural and human-triggered avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

50 to 90 mm of precipitation, combined with strong southerly winds, is forecast to fall by 4 pm Monday. This is adding to the approximately 10 to 25 mm that fell on Sunday. We expect to see widespread reactive storm slabs building as a result.

The snow/rain line elevation is uncertain and expected to fluctuate during the storm. It's possible we could see rain up to 1800 m. There is potential for wet loose avalanches where the snow surface is wet.

A crust with facets, formed in mid-November, was buried 50 to 100 cm before the storm. Storm slabs have the potential to step down to this layer.

Snowpack height averages around 100 to 180 cm at treeline and decreases rapidly below 1500 m.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Cloudy. 20 to 45 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Monday
Cloudy. 30 to 45 mm of snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 1700 to 2100 m.

Tuesday
Cloudy. 5 to 15 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1500 - 1000 m.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 15 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.