Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2016–Jan 30th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Patience and diligence may be required to resist venturing into complex terrain as the snowpack settles and adjusts to the recent load and warming.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated light flurries. Freezing levels around 1200m and light southwesterly winds. SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud and possible isolated light flurries with freezing levels dropping below valley bottoms and light variable winds. MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated light flurries. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and light southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday include a several storm and wind slab avalanches up to Size 2 from natural and human triggers.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses exist within and under the recent settled storm snow, with snowpack tests producing easy to moderate results down 15-20cm (or deeper where wind-loaded) on buried surface hoar, decomposing storm snow or a thin crust, and hard results down 45-65 cm on a crust buried mid January. The persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar, sun crusts, rime crusts and/or facets that was buried in early January is now down close to a metre in most places and producing hard but sudden results in snowpack tests. The overlying slab remains primed for triggering and is especially touchy at and below treeline. The lower snowpack is well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm and wind slabs are sensitive to human triggers an particulary touchy where they are bonding poorly to recently buried surface hoar or crust.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Surface hoar buried at the beginning of January remains primed for human triggers. The potential for widespread propagation and remote triggering makes this persistent slab particularly tricky to manage.

Use conservative route selection and be aware of the possibility of remote triggering.>Avoid steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5