Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Unsettled warm, wet and windy conditions will continue through the weekend.  As the stationary cold front slowly slides southward, cooler air will replace the warm air overnight Friday before another weaker storm sets up on Saturday. On Friday, a mix of sun and cloud with light precipitation up to 10 mm is expected. Strong SW ridgetop winds and freezing levels will stay near 2600 m.  Freezing levels will then drop overnight and hover around 1700 m on Saturday.  Ridgetop winds will blow moderate to strong from the SW-W and light convective precipitation will continue. On Sunday, precipitation amounts 3-12 mm are expected with ridgetop winds strong from the west. Freezing levels will stay steady around 1700 m.

On Wednesday, several natural large cornice failures up to size 2.5 were reported along with a natural size 2 storm slab from NW-SE aspects above 2200 m. I suspect the region saw a  natural avalanche cycle with Thursday's storm, however; reports across the region have yet confirmed distribution, size and magnitude. On Friday, natural avalanche activity will likely continue with warm temperatures, strong winds and periods of sun and rain. Avalanches failing on the mid-March persistent interface will be large and destructive.

New dense snow up to 25 cm at higher elevations has added load to the previous storm snow that sits over the mid-March interface 40-60 cm down. This interface is comprised of  a series of crusts, wind affected surfaces, and old wind slabs which has recently come alive and has been reactive, especially in the North (Revelstoke and surrounding area). Snow-pit testing varies regionally, with this interface generally showing moderate to hard results with a resistent-sudden planar fracture characteristic. Recent snowfall amounts taper off towards the south of the region. Strong SW winds had redistributed the new snow into wind slabs on leeward features. Digging deeper, 50-80 cm is the mid-February facet/crust interface. There is some concern for this layer to wake-up in the South Columbia region and storm slab avalanches have the potential to step down to it. From 2200 m down, the upper snowpack has become wet, and has seen no significant re-freeze overnight.