Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Snow and strong to extreme winds from the West will persist overnight and into Saturday with coastal regions seeing the brunt of the storm. The centre of the low will weaken over the Gulf of Alaska while most of the BC coastal regions stay unsettled. An arctic front will push its way towards the BC North Coast on Sunday afternoon and strong outflow winds are expected through coastal inlets during this period.Saturday: Freezing levels near 500 m with alpine temps near -4.0. Snow amounts 10-25 cm and ridgetop winds strong from the West.Sunday: Freezing levels near 300 m with alpine temps near -8.0. Snow amounts 8-15 cm and ridgetop winds light with strong gusts from the southwest. Monday: Mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels in the valley bottom and alpine temps near -9.0. Ridgetop winds light from the East. Expect outflow winds.

On Thursday, several machine triggered storm slab avalanches were triggered up to size 3 from North aspects between 1400 m- 1500 m. These were 25-100 m wide and running 20-180 m in length, running on buried surface hoar. Explosive control also triggered several size 2 slabs on East aspects within that same elevation zone. No new avalanche reports from today (Friday) however; a widespread natural avalanche cycle likely occurred during the storm and will persist with strong winds and more snow.

Storm snow totals reached 30-50 cm by Friday afternoon, with the potential for much more on lee features due to strong winds. The new snow will load a buried surface hoar layer reported 60-80 cm below the surface in many parts of the region. Recent snowpack tests indicated the layer can be triggered with moderate loads and has the potential to propagate over long distances. This layer will likely become reactive under the stress of this new load. A thick rain crust exists 20-30 cm below the surface hoar layer, with isolated reports of weak facets (sugary snow) forming above the crust. Treeline snow depths are around 120-140 cm in the Terrace and Stewart areas, but substantially less further north. Snow in these thinner areas, such as Ningunsaw, may be faceting and developing weak basal layers.