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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2016–Jan 15th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

Touchy soft slabs can likely be found in wind loaded features in the alpine or around convexities at tree line and below.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Friday: Mainly clear, no precipitation is expected, light westerly winds and a freezing level of 500m. Saturday: Light snow starting overnight with up to 10cm expected by the end of the day, light to moderate southwesterly winds, and a freezing level between 700 and 1000m. Sunday: Snow forecast to continue overnight with up to another 20cm by the end of the day, light to moderate southerly winds, and a freezing level of between 700 and 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

The majority of the recent avalanche activity has been reported from areas that saw more snow through the last storm. Explosive control produced avalanches up to size 2 failing on the layer of buried surface hoar on Wednesday. In areas where a storm slab has not yet developed the surface snow is sluffing fast and far.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfalls have been highly variable across the region. Northwest of Pemberton up to 40cm of snow fell. Further inland the storm only brought between 15 and 25cm to the Duffy and Coquihalla. This snow is now settling into a soft slab that overlies a crust on steep solar aspects, or a layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes at all elevations. Moderate to strong southwest through southeast winds have been loading lee features at treeline and in the alpine. 10 to 15 cm deeper is a second buried weak layer again consisting of a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects in the alpine or well-developed surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and lower elevations. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallow snowpack areas that may be more faceted. At lower elevations below treeline recent rain may have saturated the upper snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent storm snow is sitting above a widespread layer of surface hoar. Expect touchy conditions in area where wind has formed deeper soft slabs.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3