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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2014–Dec 19th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Avalanche danger is increasing as the new storm moves in from the Southwest.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Light snow (5-8 cm) overnight and continued light snow during the day on Friday. Strong Southeast winds overnight becoming moderate Southeast during the day on Friday. Freezing levels at or near valley bottoms on Friday. 10-20 cm of new snow by Saturday morning with another 15-30 cm during the day combined with very strong Southerly winds and freezing levels rising up to about 1200metres. Another 10-15 cm of new snow by Sunday morning and snow continuing throughout the day.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. The forecast new storm is expected to increase avalanche activity over the next few days.

Snowpack Summary

The new storm is expected to develop a storm slab above the recent "dusting" of new snow that is sitting on a variety of surfaces which include wind slabs in alpine terrain, hard rain crusts at lower elevations and weak surface hoar crystals. Last week's heavy rain affected southern parts of the region up to alpine elevations, while the far north remained drier and sports a weaker snowpack in general. Areas which previously received rain have probably now formed a hard frozen crust. Upper elevation terrain and far northern areas are likely to have wind slabs and large fragile cornices. Deeper in the snowpack, weaknesses such as the mid-November crust-facet layer still exist. Avalanches at this interface have become unlikely, although the consequences of a release remain high. This layer may be more sensitive to triggering in steep, unsupported high alpine terrain, or in the far north of the region.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast new snow and strong winds are expected to start to develop a new storm slab in the alpine and at treeline. Early in the storm the new snow may release as loose dry snow and slide easily on the old hard crust or surface hoar interface.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3