Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of flurries and sunny breaks late in the day. The freezing level is near 600-800 m. Winds are generally light. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is near 400 m and ridge winds are light or moderate from the NW. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is near 400 m and ridge winds are light or moderate from the NW.

There were no new reports of avalanches on Friday; however, there is more evidence of a fairly widespread natural cycle earlier in the week. Many observers reported slabs up to size 3, mainly from steep open features at and below treeline. Observations are generally limited in the alpine but a couple observers noted a surprising lack of slab activity at higher elevations. Cooler and drier conditions should help stabilize the snowpack and reduce the likelihood of triggering. That being said, there is still potential for triggering lingering persistent weaknesses and producing very large and destructive avalanches.

Generally 15-25 cm of lower density new snow overlies moist or wet snow, or previously wind affected surfaces in the alpine. Fresh wind slabs are likely in lee and cross-loaded features in the alpine and at treeline. The January 9th surface hoar/facet layer is down 70-150 cm in most places, and remains a concern on all aspects and elevations. Around the same depth you may also find a surface hoar/facet interface from around New Years. In the wake of the recent storm, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the reactivity and distribution of this destructive persistent avalanche problem. Additionally, the snowpack will require time to adjust to the stress of heavy storm loading. A very conservative approach to mountain travel is still required.