Avalanche Forecast

Moderate

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of sunny breaks followed by light snow 5-10 cm. The freezing level is around 1200-1400 m and winds are moderate from the south. SATURDAY: Periods of snow 20-30 cm. The freezing level is around 1200 m and winds are moderate gusting strong from the SE-SW. SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with flurries. The freezing level hovers around 1200 m and winds ease to light.

Expect a widespread natural avalanche cycle throughout the day on Thursday in response to rapid loading from snow and wind. We could see numerous size 2-3 storm and wind slabs, with the potential for even large slides stepping down the the early February surface hoar layer. It will be a day to wait out the storm from a safe place.

The current snow surface consists of soft wind slabs in exposed lee terrain, dry lower density snow in sheltered terrain, and some places have mentioned small surface hoar forming overnight on Tuesday. Forecast heavy snowfall, warming, and very strong winds will rapidly create fresh storm slabs everywhere, and deep wind slabs in exposed lee terrain for Thursday. Some areas could see 50-80 cm in a 24 hour period! This intense loading could overload a weak layer of surface hoar buried at the beginning of February, and currently about 70-80 cm below the surface. This layer is primarily a concern in the South Chilcotin Mountains. Expect a widespread and large natural avalanche cycle during the storm. Ongoing stormy weather has also encouraged extensive cornice growth.