Avalanche Forecast

Good

Synopsis: A low pressure system exists the region Wednesday morning leaving behind unstable air that may give some lingering flurries into Thursday. On Friday, a ridge builds giving clearer, warmer weather.Wednesday: Flurries with clear breaks for many areas. Strong westerly winds diminishing through the day. Freezing level around 900mThursday: Dry but cloudy. Northwest winds to 30km/h at ridgetop. Freezing level around 700m.Friday: Dry with alpine sunshine but a good chance of valley cloud. Light northwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to 2200m, with inversions likely.

A small (size 1) avalanche was human-triggered on a steep north aspect slope at 1800m on Tuesday.

Recent warm weather has left crusty surfaces, particularly on solar aspects, which are now buried by a skiff of snow. A slightly deeper buried crust from around Feb 3th lies approximately 20-40 cm below  the surface. This interface was the focus of recent avalanche activity during the last storm. Activity has since tapered off on this layer, however, snowpack tests still give sudden results, indicating that with the right trigger in specific places (most likely steep convex slopes where there is a buried crust) triggering an avalanche on this layer is still possible. Down approximately 50-70 cm sits another persistent interface comprising of crusts, facets and surface hoar crystals. This layer is now mostly unreactive, with only one size 2 avalanche reported (on Feb 6th) since the end of January. If it were to be triggered again, the most likely spot would be a steep convex roll on a sheltered north aspect slope around treeline. A recent Rutchblock test gave a score of 6 with a partial block release in the Duffey Lake area. The mid and lower snowpack pack layers are generally well settled.