Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 11th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Wet.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
Local avalanche danger will likely be determined by the presence of a surface crust. A strong, supportive crust means avalanches will be unlikely. Where the crust breaks down with afternoon sun and warming, wet loose avalanches may still be possible on steep slopes.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure brings very warm and sunny conditions which are expected to persist until the end of Sunday. A temperature inversion is expected with cooler temperatures in the valleys.
Friday night: Clear, light N wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.
Saturday: Sunny, light variable wind, freezing levels around 3000 m.
Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate SW wind, freezing levels dropping to around 2500 m.Â
Monday: Light snow overnight and morning, sunny breaks in the afternoon, moderate variable wind, freezing levels around 1000 m.Â
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, minor pinwheeling was reported where the sun broke through the fog. More widespread loose wet activity is expected to have occurred on Friday with a full day of sun.Â
On Wednesday, ski cutting triggered some small loose wet avalanches which were failing in the top 10 cm and sliding on top of the crust.Â
Snowpack Summary
Light rain on Tuesday plus ongoing high freezing levels and sun have moistened the surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of a widespread surface crust is expected to have occurred Thursday overnight with clear skies and cooler temperatures. This surface crust is expected to break down on sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon and then reform overnight.Â
The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 40 cm and is reported to be knife hard and up to 30 cm thick. This crust extends to at least the top of treeline. While the snow above appears to be well bonded to this crust, we will continue to track it through this period of warming and sun for any signs of instabilities.Â
Another prominent crust from mid-January is now down around 1 m but this crust no longer appears to be a concern in the region. Below the mid-January crust, the middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose wet avalanches may still be possible on steep sun-exposed slopes where the surface crust breaks down during the heat of the afternoon.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 12th, 2022 4:00PM
