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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 1st, 2022–Feb 2nd, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: North Rockies.

Observe for the bond of the recent snow to previous surfaces before committing to consequential terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies with no precipitation, 10 to 20 km/h northwest wind, alpine temperature -24 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -20 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 40 to 60 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -11 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

The recent snow was reactive on Monday, generally failing as small loose dry avalanches in steep terrain, but some observations of storm and wind slabs. 

Looking forward to the coming days, slab avalanche activity is expected to increase once the recent snow settles and forms a cohesive slab. Human triggering remains elevated, particularly where the snow sits on the surface hoar described in the snowpack summary.

Snowpack Summary

Around 15 to 30 cm of recent snow has accumulated, which may remain touchy to riders. The snow may sit on weak surface hoar crystals in areas sheltered from the wind, which may also sit above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes. Expect to find wind slabs in steep terrain at higher elevations, as the snow fell with strong wind from varying directions.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded. The base of the snowpack is expected to be weak and faceted in shallow, rocky slopes east of the divide.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Around 10 to 30 cm of recent snow sits on various surfaces, including weak surface hoar crystals and hard wind-affected snow or crusts. Storm slabs could be triggered in areas sheltered from the wind and wind slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2