Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 3rd, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada swerner, Avalanche Canada

Natural avalanche activity will likely occur on Thursday, especially when the freezing levels are forecast to rise to the mountain tops! The snowpack will need more time to adjust and settle out. Its a good time to be patient and conservative. 

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday Night: Snow amounts 10-20 cm and ridgetop wind moderate from the South. Alpine temperatures near -3 and freezing levels 600 m.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some sunny periods and snow 5-15 cm. Ridgetop wind light with strong gusts from the southeast. Alpine temperatures 0 degrees and freezing levels 1200 m. 

Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Ridgetop wind moderate from the South. Alpine temperatures near -4 and freezing levels 700 m. 

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud with ridgetop wid light from the South. Alpine temperatures near -5 and freezing levels 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a notable persistent slab size 3 was reported. It was possibly a day old, however; the suspect failure plane was the mid-February weak layer. Numerous natural storm slabs were also reported.

Over the weekend a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3 and explosive control initiated numerous size 2-3 storm slabs and persistent slabs.

The storm looks to taper off Thursday however snowfall amounts due vary across the region. With rising freezing levels and all of this recent snow and wind, the avalanche danger will remain elevated through the day.

It's a good time to stay very conservative, stick to simple terrain, and be aware of overhead hazards like large avalanche paths and cornices. 

Snowpack Summary

60-100 cm of recent storm snow blanketed the region over the past week. This was accompanied by strong to extreme southwest winds building deeper wind slabs on leeward slopes. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines at treeline and in the alpine. Below treeline moist snow sits on a melt-freeze crust. 

Snowfall accumulation now brings 1-2 metres over the plethora of old snow surfaces buried mid-February and deeper down buried late January. These old persistent weak layers comprise of hard wind-packed snow, feathery surface hoar crystals especially in areas sheltered from the wind, and sugary faceted snow that developed during the cold snap. These weak layers have been the result of several larger avalanches in the past week. 

The mid-pack has been reported as being well-settled. There are presently no deeper concerns 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain as temperatures increase.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow accumulations are up to 60-80 cm in some parts of the region. It will continue to snow over Wednesday night and Thursday building reactive storm slabs through the forecast period. Strong southwest wind persists, so wind slabs will rapidly build at upper elevations. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

A natural persistent slab size 3 was reported on Tuesday and has been reactive to rider and explosive triggering over the past week. There is anywhere from 90 to 250 cm of snow above a mixed bag of old snow surfaces buried in mid-February. The concern now is for storm slab avalanches stepping down to this deep layer and skier or rider triggering which would result in a very-large, consequential avalanche. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Wet loose avalanches may occur at all elevations but be more predominant at treeline and below due to fluctuating freezing levels. Obvious signs are natural avalanches, snowballing, moist, and sticky snow surfaces. 

Large, looming cornices exist along ridgelines. They may become weak and fail during periods of warming on Thursday. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 4th, 2021 4:00PM