Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells, West Purcell.
Rapid warming will increase the likelihood of triggering large avalanches.
The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Numerous naturally triggered size 1 dry and wet loose avalanches were reported on all aspects in steep terrain on Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
Strong solar radiation has formed a surface crust everywhere except north facing terrian at upper elevations.
15 to 30 cm of recent snow and southwest wind formed wind slabs in specific locations below alpine ridgecrests. The recent snow overlies a crust on all but north facing aspects at treeline and above where a weak layer of surface hoar may be present.
A widespread crust with facets above is down 60 to 110 cm. Steep or convex terrain features with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack at treeline and above are the most likely places to trigger this layer.
Weak facets at the base of the snowpack remain a concern in steep, rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Clear skies. 10 to 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6° C. Freezing level 800 m.
Monday
Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3° C. Freezing level 2400 m.
Tuesday
Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6° C. Freezing level 2800 m.
Wednesday
Mix of sun and cloud. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2° C. Freezing level 1800 m.
Check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for additional weather information.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Rapid warming increases the likelihood of triggering very large avalanches on deeply buried weak layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Wind Slabs
15 to 30 cm of recent snow and southwest wind formed wind slabs in isolated locations below alpine ridgecrests.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Expect the high freezing levels and sunshine to trigger wet loose avalanches on all but true north aspects in the alpine.
Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5