Avalanche Forecast

A small disturbance is slated to influence the region starting Tuesday night. Expect clouds to build through and snow to start falling late Tuesday and continue through the night and on Thursday. 25cm are possible. Accompanying this storm will be strong southwest winds. Temperatures should be reasonably consistent around -5.On Thursday, the weather looks quite stagnant, with another storm pulse building into Friday. Expect another 20cm going into the weekend. 

Spring conditions at all elevations are just around the corner.  Exposure to the sun, warm temperatures, and periods of rain will soon be the most likely factors to influence the avalanche danger. If the temperatures go below freezing overnight, strong crusts should develop that are likely to hold the snowpack together. If the sun shines for a few hours, the crusts may break down quickly and moist surface snow avalanches may start running naturally. Continued warming from more sun, rain, or no overnight freeze, may cause surface avalanches to step down and trigger deeper wet slab avalanches. Prolonged warming may cause very deep releases on weak layers that date back to early in the season, or on depth hoar that developed during the winter. It is important to monitor the temperature and the freezing levels as they may change rapidly from day to day.

Winter is still in full effect at and above treeline. Winter riding conditions come with winter avalanche problems and now you need to be your own avalanche forecaster.  Here are a few things to think about:Until we get into the melt/freeze cycle, most of the avalanche problems are relegated to the upper portion of the snowpack.  Storm slab, wind slabs and cornices remain primary concerns.There is plenty of snow available for transport up high which has been exposed to significant amounts of wind.  You may find wind slabs further down the slope than you expect this late in the season.Storm snow falling on crusts often produces a poor bond, at least initially.The long days and strong late April sun affect snow surprising quickly.  It’s probably a good idea to steer clear of features where dry snow is receiving direct sun, especially for the first time.Lots of quick pits can help you put together the overall pattern of the zone that you’re recreating in.  If its been awhile since you were in the snow, start small and gain confidence in the snowpack before you get too ambitious.