Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 24th, 2014 8:46AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

The storm snow will take several days to settle and stabilize. Make conservative terrain choices and have a safe holiday period.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

On Thursday, expect mostly cloudy conditions with light scattered flurries. Freezing levels should be near valley bottom with light-to-moderate NW wind in the alpine. The next storm system is expected to reach the coast on Friday morning but it doesn't look like much precipitation will make it into the interior. Friday may see 2-4mm of precipitation with freezing levels around valley bottom and light-to-moderate SW wind in the alpine. Saturday may see another 3-6mm with temperatures remaining cold and alpine winds easing.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday we received a report of a size 1.5 skier remotely triggered avalanche in the far north of the region. It released on a steep, wind loaded feature and was triggered from 5m away.  The slab was 25-45cm thick and occurred around 1600m elevation. On Sunday we received a report from the Hankin area of a natural size 1 slab avalanche. This occurred on a north aspect at treeline. The crown depth was around 20cm and it failed on the most recent rain crust. Check out the report here: http://goo.gl/WdmvxL

Snowpack Summary

Since Friday, the region has received around 30-50cm of new snow. Strong winds have created wind slabs in exposed terrain and have probably striped the snow off of exposed slopes. Below the new snow you'll likely find old wind-scoured surfaces or old wind slabs in exposed terrain, and settled storm snow closer to treeline. Near the base of the snowpack, weaknesses such as the mid-November crust-facet layer are still of concern. We don't know much about this layer but older reports suggest that it may still be reactive in isolated areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
The new storm snow may take several days to stabilize. Strong winds have created wind slabs in leeward features in the alpine.
Use conservative route selection, stick to low angled terrain with low consequence.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs
Deeply buried weak layers may still be a concern in isolated areas. Triggering of these deep layers is most likely from shallow snowpack areas such as areas around rock outcrops.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Dec 25th, 2014 2:00PM