Deep storm slabs have formed and forecast warming will create its own mix of avalanche problems. Watch for a wide range of conditions as winter and spring weather patterns collide.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
On Wednesday expect 5-10cm of new snow, strong to extreme southwest winds and freezing levels climbing from 1500 to 1800m over the course of the day. On Thursday and Friday, a dry ridge of high pressure will bring mainly sunny skies. Freezing levels will sit at about 3000m on Thursday and then drop to 2000m on Friday.
Avalanche Summary
Stormy weather has limited avalanche observations, although I'm sure there has been a decent round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind. Human triggering of new storm slabs will remain a very real concern on Wednesday, especially with forecast snowfall and extreme winds. As temperatures rise, cornice failures, loose wet, wet slab and isolated deep persistent slab avalanches should be on your radar.
Snowpack Summary
On Wednesday, moderate snowfall (10-25cm) formed new storm slabs. Extreme winds throughout the storm created a widespread wind effect at treeline and in the alpine and promoted continued cornice growth. Recent storm snow overlies a widespread melt-freeze crust that formed as a result of last week's warm weather and more recent cooling. The warm temperatures and sun over the last week woke-up deeply buried weak layers within the snowpack. These includes a weak crust/surface hoar layer which is buried down 40-60cm in the north of the region, a widespread crust/facet layer buried in early February down around 1m, a lingering surface hoar layer from January down over a meter, and weak basal facets at the bottom of the snowpack. More recent cooling has dramatically limited the reactivity of these destructive old layers; however, they may come back to life during future periods of warming, solar radiation, or heavy storm loading.
jlammers,
Avalanche Canada
