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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2021–Feb 1st, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Near continuous flurries are adding to our snowpack depth. Ski quality is quite good at the moment, but be sure to keep yourself in tune with the snowpack as a whole. It's easy to forget the deeper layers when the skiing is good.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are going to steadily creep up to almost 0 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. Even the overnight period will see them rise. On the Spray it won't cause too much of an issue, but in the Bow Valley/Highway 40/Ghost area, expect a dramatic warming trend. The winds will be from the SSW and gusty. As for snow, it looks like there will be some more flurries rolling through. Amounts will vary, but if is like today was, expect another 5-10cm. Tuesday will see another pulse of snow, but we're aren't sure just how much yet.

Avalanche Summary

Many groups in the Black Prince area noted numerous loose dry avalanches out of steep, alpine cliff terrain. The largest was sz2. It was unclear if these triggered slabs below.

Snowpack Summary

We spent the day in the Black Prince area today and found the near continuous flurries kept adding to the snowpack. Down low had about 20cm from the last few days, and higher had about 35cm. While that drainage is fairly sheltered, we did note that alpine winds were blowing snow around and creating new windslabs in the alpine. It's safe to expect the regional alpine zone will have reactive windslabs on any lee (east) aspect. We may also have wind "pressing" slabs on the windward sides as well. This new snow sits on old surfaces which generally aren't a problem. The one exception to this is a narrow elevation band at treeline where the old slabs started to facet (weaken) during last week's cold snap. Steep convex rolls deserve some caution as the buried windslabs may be triggerable.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Cornices may release remotely when approached.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Slabs of all types are out there: fresh windslabs on East aspects, old buried slabs pretty much everywhere and probably wind "pressed" slabs on windward aspects. If the warm snow continues, storm slabs will also be in mix. Sporty times!

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5