Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 19th, 2015 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

We are expecting some much needed snow tomorrow. As it is now, the skiing is challenging in most places due to the warm weather.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Convective flurries will hopefully bring as much as 11cm tomorrow. The ridge winds that we experienced today are expected to decrease and settle to low values by tomorrow. The direction will swing around to the NE. The temperatures will remain consistent with the last few days. Alpine highs could reach -4,and freezing level will be around 1700m. Skies should be cloudy for most of the day.

Avalanche Summary

No new activity today.

Snowpack Summary

Yesterday's afternoon high reached +5 at valley bottom. This made the crust even thicker, and slightly more supportive. It is still breakable in most areas. We have also seen a spike in the winds recently. Snow transport was visible at treeline and alpine, however slab development is only isolated and at the moment not very touchy. Very few changes otherwise. The Jan31 is down up to a meter at treeline and the deep layers are lingering st the very bottom. In general travel is not the greatest. There are a few sheltered areas at treeline that can offer good snow still, but for the most part the skiing is challenging.

Problems

Loose Dry

If we do get the forecasted amounts we can expect sluffing to be an issue. The present surface is slippery, making for a tough bond with new, low density snow.

Be very cautious with gully features.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

There is a chance we'll see fresh windslabs tomorrow associated with the new snow. These will likely be small and limited to immediate lee in the alpine. The deeper, buried windslabs have stabilized in the last few days with the cooler temps.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The natural cycle a few days ago seems to have cleaned out many start zones. Thin and/or variable start zones with no previous activity are worth some thought and consideration.

Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 20th, 2015 2:00PM