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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 21st, 2020–Jan 22nd, 2020
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Olympics.

You could trigger a large avalanche on Wednesday with 1 ft or more of new snow wind-redistributed and loading lee slopes.  Observe recent cornice formation along ridgelines or cracking of snow surfaces to indicate wind-deposited snow, where you should expect the most reactive snow and largest avalanches. New snow should be better bonded to the MLK crust at lower elevations, so as you ascend near treeline and above, consider any slope greater than 35 degrees to be dangerous.

Discussion

Temperatures dropped below freezing Monday night before precipitation started up at Hurricane Ridge with the weather station picking up around 8” of new snow by 2 PM with snowfall continuing after the weather station went down. Moderate snow showers should continue through the evening hours and then become light overnight with moderate winds also easing after midnight. By Wednesday morning, we are likely to have 12-16” on average above the MLK crust -- enough to produce large avalanches. Slab avalanche danger may either peak early in the day as the storm snow settles or late in the day with light snowfall and temperatures both increasing from late morning onwards.

We don’t know how well the new snow is bonding to the MLK crust. Continue to use hand shears, shovel tilt tests, or small test slopes to evaluate this bond. Wind loading or grain size differences may create slab structure within the new snow. Without direct snowpack information since Monday, you’ll need to make your own snowpack assessments and be aware that conditions could be dangerous at all elevations. Heed the travel advice in the bottom line messaging.

An observation from Hurricane Ridge on Monday illustrates the state of the snowpack after several days of above freezing allowing the previously dry upper snowpack to round and consolidate to form wet snow that 1-1.5 inches thick (now the MLK crust).

Forecast Schedule

For the 2019-20 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice.  If you are out in the Olympics, share your backcountry observations with us and the greater community.

Snowpack Discussion

New Regional Synopsis coming soon. We update the Regional Synopsis every Thursday at 6 pm.