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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2020–Jan 18th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Watch for reactive slabs in wind-loaded areas.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods today and isolated flurries. Trace amounts of accumulation. The alpine high will be -15 with freezing levels staying in the valley bottom. Ridge winds SW 20-30 km/h. A small pulse of precipitation is expected on Saturday with another 5cm of new snow.

Snowpack Summary

Strong southerly winds have redistributed 15cm of new storm snow. Reactive wind slabs have formed in exposed areas above treeline. The Dec 27th surface hoar/ crust layer is buried approximately 100cm. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Field teams on Mt Abbott and Avalanche Crest ski cut several size 1.5 avalanches in wind loaded areas, failing 15cm deep with good propagation. The "Frequent Flyer" avalanche path released naturally with a size 2.5 that overran the typical Connaught Creek uptrack. In the east end of the highway corridor, 4 size 2.5 and 2 size 3.0 Na were observed.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Multiple field teams confirmed the presence of easily-triggered soft wind slabs in exposed areas at all elevations. With strong southerly winds overnight, expect this problem to persists today. These slabs can have larger than expected propagation.

  • Watch for shooting cracks or stiffer feeling snow. Avoid areas that appear wind loaded.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The December 27th surface hoar layer persists down approximately 100cm. This layer is becoming less reactive in stability tests and it is increasingly harder to find in snow profiles, but the potential is still there to get surprised.

  • Avoid lingering in runout zones.
  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3