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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 3rd, 2022–Apr 4th, 2022
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

The ongoing storm will continue to develop touchy storm slabs on Monday. Large, natural avalanches should be expected and extremely conservative terrain selection is essential including avoiding exposure to overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A major storm system is expected to continue to impact the region until Monday night and may end up lingering into Tuesday morning. 

Sunday Night: Snowfall 40-60 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level low around 1000 m/high around 1300 m. 

Monday: Snowfall 15-30 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level high around 1200 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with potential for lingering flurries in the morning, strong NW wind easing through the day, freezing level high around 1200 m.

Wednesday: Mainly sunny, light to moderate SW wind, freezing level high around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a ski cut triggered a very small dry loose avalanche with about 5 cm of new snow sliding on a firm melt-freeze crust. In wind loaded terrain, about 15 cm of new snow was observed to be cracking while travelling. 

Snowpack Summary

As of Sunday afternoon, weather stations were showing 20-40 cm of new storm snow accumulation. The storm snow has buried a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Strong southwest wind will be redistributing this new snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs. Lower elevations are expected to continue to see wet snow or rainfall, and wet loose avalanche should be expected. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall is expected to continue to build touchy storm slabs on Monday and a natural avalanche cycle is expected. The storm snow may be failing on a hard underlying melt-freeze crust or on interfaces within the storm snow.  

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

Rain at lower elevations will destabilize the upper snowpack. Loose wet avalanches are most likely at elevations where rain soaks recent snowfall overlying a hard melt-freeze crust, or where the crust completely breaks down.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2