Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Saturday night: Flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Winds moderate from the southwest.Sunday: Cloudy with scattered flurries and approximately 5 cm of new snow. Winds moderate to strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures of -10.Monday: Flurries delivering another 5-10 cm of new snow. Winds light to moderate from the south. Alpine temperatures of -13.Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Winds light from the southwest. Alpine temperatures of -15.

Reports from Friday don't yet take into account our new snow, but loose snow sluffing (to Size 1) in steep terrain has been a developing theme this week, likely aided by recent faceting of surface snow. Reports from Thursday include a large natural cornice fall in the north of the region which succeeded in triggering a small slab, as well as evidence of wind slabs releasing both naturally and under skier traffic to Size 2.As for Sunday's outlook, fresh storm slabs are expected to be sensitive to human triggering, especially where they overlie weak surfaces and in wind exposed areas where slab properties will develop more quickly.

Around 20 cm of new snow over Friday and Saturday has now buried a range of different conditions that existed at our previous surface. In addition to wind slabs that exist on a variety of aspects in exposed terrain, the new snow also overlies a sun crust reported on steep solar aspects as well as surface hoar recently found growing on sheltered open slopes. Surface faceting has also been reported as a result of the recent cold temperatures. The bond of the new snow to these underlying surfaces will likely be weak and touchy conditions can be expected as the new snow settles into storm slabs above them. A persistent weakness buried mid January is now down 30-60 cm and consists of buried surface hoar in sheltered areas, sun crust on south aspects, and/or widespread faceted old snow. It has generally stabilized but may be sensitive to triggering in isolated areas where buried surface hoar is preserved. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and stable.