Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Northwest Coastal.
Snow is gradually accumulating and consolidating above a recently buried layer of surface hoar. Best to make conservative terrain choices at this time.
Confidence
No Rating - Uncertainty is due to unpredictable avalanche behavior. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
Saturday Night: Scattered flurries. Alpine temperature -3 C. Light southwest wind . Freezing level 600 m.
Sunday: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature -4 C. Light southwest wind. Freezing level 500 m.
Monday: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm. Alpine temperature -5 C. Moderate south wind. Freezing level 500 m.
Tuesday: Scattered flurries, Alpine temperature -5 C. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 300 m.
Avalanche Summary
There were reports of a few natural size 1 storm slab avalanches in the Shames area on Thursday. There are no reports of avalanche activity on Friday or Saturday.Â
Snowpack Summary
50-80 cm of snow has accumulated over a weak layer of surface hoar, old faceted surfaces, and/or a crust on south/southwest aspects in the alpine. Reports from the Shames area suggest the surface hoar layer is prevalent on all aspects at treeline elevations down to 800 m, and more likely on leeward and sheltered alpine areas. Check out this MIN report from sheltered terrain near Shames.
The lower snowpack is generally considered strong, as there has been very little to report in terms of recent avalanche activity or snowpack test results on deeper layers. Snowpack depths at treeline range from 100-200 cm and taper quickly at lower elevations.
Terrain and Travel
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
50-80 cm snow has accumulated over a weak layer of surface hoar. It is uncertain when this layer may become reactive as the snow above gradually accumulates and consolidates. Certainly it is right at the tipping point, so making conservative terrain choices is the best way to manage this problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2