Avalanche Forecast

High -

FRIDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, 2-3 cm  / southwest winds 10-15 km/h / alpine low temperature near -15SATURDAY - Cloudy with scattered flurries, 2-3 cm / southeast winds 10-15 km/h / alpine high temperature near -12SUNDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / east winds 10-15 km/h / alpine high temperature near -15MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / northeast winds, 10-15 km/h / alpine high temperature near -14

On Thursday, there was a report of a human triggered persistent slab avalanche, size 1.5.  There were also a few reports of natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches to size 1.On Wednesday, there were a few reports of human triggered avalanches, size 1-1.5 on both north and southerly aspects. Of note was a report of a human triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche in the Gorman Lake area. There is a great MIN report detailing this avalanche here.Over the past week there have been daily reports of natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches in the Purcells. Most days there have also been reports of persistent slab avalanches failing on a weak layer buried mid January. This layer is discussed in more detail in the Snowpack Summary below. These avalanches are becoming fewer and further between, but they are still being triggered by humans and they and carry high consequences as they tend to be large avalanches.There is a great MIN report of a human triggered persistent slab avalanche on Sunday in the Hellroaring Creek area here.

Depending on location, the snow surface either consists of 15-40 cm of low density snow, wind slabs, or sun crusts on steep south facing terrain. Wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to recent variable wind direction. This new snow sits on old wind slabs and/or facets (sugary snow).Lower down there are two layers of of surface hoar (feathery crystals) that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 70 cm deep and are most prominent at treeline and below treeline elevations. The surface hoar may sit on a crust on south facing slopes.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that sit on a crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and very difficult to predict. It is most likely to be triggered from areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Rocky alpine bowls, ridge crests, and rocky outcroppings are some examples of terrain features to be wary of. See the Forecaster Blog here for more information on this problem.