Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2019–Jan 16th, 2019

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

One more day of heat in the alpine. Danger will increase with direct sun on the slopes and daytime warming.

Weather Forecast

Sunny and warm in the alpine, while cool temp's remain trapped in the valley bottom. Alpine high of +1*C with light variable winds. More clouds move in tomorrow and the warm air should get pushed out, with freezing levels reaching 1400m and much less solar radiation. Thurs/Fri brings isolated flurries, alpine temp's of -6*C, light winds.

Snowpack Summary

A temperature inversion has promoted slab formation at tree-line and alpine elevations, as well as helped create a surface crust, especially on steep solar aspects. Isolated wind slabs exist in the alpine in exposed areas and near ridge lines on all aspects. The Jan 2 freezing rain crust is down ~90cm. The Nov 21st interface is now 1-2m in deep.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed nor reported Monday. Frequent Flyer left debris across the skin-track up Connaught Creek on Sunday during a sun-induced natural avalanche cycle, while numerous slab and loose avalanches to size 3 were observed on Sunday in the highway corridor.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

The previous warm, sunny days likely have cooked solar aspects, but we may still see loose, moist avalanches running during the warmest part of the day. Steep S/SW aspects are the most suspect for triggering.

If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Surface slabs exist at all elevations and aspects, but may be more likely to trigger on solar aspects with the warm temp's and intense sunshine.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

A recent size 3.5 skier triggered avalanche in Camp West path ran on this layer. The likelihood of triggering deeper layers increases with warming air temperatures. Cornices, which are also temperature sensitive, can certainly trigger this problem.

Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5