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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2014–Nov 28th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The Winter Permit System is now in effect. We are in the middle of a major storm. Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

A warm, Pacific storm hit us overnight and continues. Another 20-30cm is expected today with moderate southerly winds increasing loading rates. Freezing levels are forecast to rise, but will hopefully stay below Rogers Pass (1300m). On Friday, snowfall will start to taper off as cold, arctic air moves in. Temp's will plummet overnight to -28'C.

Snowpack Summary

Two layers of concern, the Nov 21 surface hoar/sun crust layer down ~ 90 and Nov 9 rain crust down ~110cm, are becoming reactive as the load on top of them increases. Snowpack tests in two locations, a south aspect and a north aspect, showed that these layers may be triggered by skiers and if triggered are likely to propagate into large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity started overnight with rapid loading by heavy snowfall and moderate winds. It's still too dark out to fully assess, but avalanches to size 3 were observed overnight. These were running well into the avalanche runout zones.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Touchy weak layers down ~80 and ~100cm are being rapidly loaded. These layers are easily triggered and are being overloaded resulting in natural avalanches. Avalanches have been running into valley bottoms overnight.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Wind Slabs

Moderate southerly winds are loading lee slopes and forming more cohesive slabs. Wind loading will also trigger natural avalanches. Avoid exposure to steep paths that are being rapidly loaded, such as the Cheops North paths.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose avalanches are possible on steep sheltered slopes and gullies. Be cautious in these areas, where a bit of sluffing snow can quickly gain mass.
Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Watch for terrain traps where small amounts of snow will acumulate into deep deposits.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2