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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2013–Jan 2nd, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

More sun today may weaken cornices. Give them wide berth while traveling along ridges, and avoid traveling below them if they are getting direct sun. Snowpack depths are below average and crevasses are still thinly bridged.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure with a mild inversion will result in dry conditions with valley cloud and alpine sun for the next 3 days.  Moderate N'ly winds today may reverse load lee slopes, before the winds back off and return to more W'ly tomorrow. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom. A low pressure system is expected late Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Surface snow is facetting with cold temps. Recent tests indicate that the interface down ~30cm between the new and old settled snow will fail with moderate force but is resistant to move. The Nov. crust down 160cm collapses with a hard force in snowpack tests but has yet to produce avalanches. Snowpack depths are below average.

Avalanche Summary

Direct morning sun on easterly aspects caused a large chunk of cornice to fail on Cheops Mtn, triggering a size 2 slab. Small, loose avalanches also ran during this period from steep solar aspects, before clouds moved in reducing the solar effects. Skiers report sluffing of the top 20cm on steep slopes.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

The loose upper snow sluffs easily on very steep slopes. So far, these have been small (size 1) skier and solar triggered loose avalanches. On large steep slopes, particularly gully features, these may gain mass and become larger.
On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.Watch for terrain traps where small amounts of snow will acumulate into deep deposits.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2