A snowboarder who triggered a slab avalanche just before noon on a southwest aspect of Mt. Taylor was injured yesterday. Similar events are possible today. Warmer temperatures and abundant sunshine will be increasing the avalanche hazard. Loose snow sloughs are possible on steep sunlit slopes. Skiers and riders could trigger surface slabs on a variety of aspects and some potential remains for larger triggers like snowmachines and cornice failures to trigger dangerous deep slab avalanches. Conservative terrain choices are warranted.
Soft slab avalanches 1 to 3 feet in depth could be triggered by skiers and riders who venture into steep avalanche starting zones, cliff areas and steep couloirs. The likelihood of triggering these surface slabs will increase as the day warms.
Deep hard slab avalanches with depths to five feet are still a potential avalanche hazard. These low probability/high consequence slides are more likely to be triggered where a weak layer of faceted snow that formed in December is less than three feet below the snow surface. Large triggers, such as snowmobiles or cornice failures, are more likely to trigger one of these large destructive avalanches.
Clear skies are expected through the morning before clouds increase as a weak upper level disturbance approaches and brings moisture to the area Thursday evening. Mountain temperatures are to again rise from the single digits to the mid-twenties while southwest winds increase to 25-30 mph averages during the afternoon.The general avalanche hazard will be Moderate in the morning above 7500 feet and could increase to Considerable in the afternoon if significant warming occurs and increases the likelihood for a single person to trigger recently formed wind slabs to depths of three feet. The deep slab avalanche problem also continues although larger triggers such as snow machines, groups of people, or cornice failures may be necessarily to cause their release. An avalanche involving the deep persistent layer is less likely in the Teton area than in the Togwotee Pass or Southwest Trails areas.
