Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Monday there were reports of shallow avalanches throughout the region.  Although the bulk of new snowfall is behind us, the avalanche hazard will remain constant as we move into Tuesday.  The most dangerous slopes will be those where wind blown snow has accumulated and Wind Slab avalanches could be large enough to bury or injure a rider.  Below treeline shallow Storm Slab avalanches are possible where the recent storm snow has fallen on surface hoar or near surface facets.  While these avalanches are unlikely to be large enough to bury a rider, they may propogate far and could be proplematic on slopes where terrain traps are present.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Today was one of the few days of my life that I made soft, pleasant turns through the tight trees just west of Tumalo Butte's summit, which are usually quite scoured.  The wind has shifted from the east on Sunday through the south and was mostly out of the southwest today.  On Tuesday is will continue around the compass and we may even have some Light north winds.  There is the potential for Wind Slabs on all aspects.  Historically these shifts in the wind with continued snowfall can result in reactive Wind Slabs.  Wind Slabs may also overlay buried surface hoar or near surface facets in isolated regions.  Watch for shooting cracks, and use test slopes and hand shears to see how reactive the Wind Slabs are on Tuesday.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Our twenty four hour snowfall totals are around 20-25 cm.  While I couldn't find any evidence of a Storm Slab problem at Tumalo Butte, there were reports of shallow Storm Slabs at Tam MacArthur Rim.  It is likely that our latest storm snow fell on Sunday's surface hoar and near surface facets in isolated regions.  On some slopes these shallow slabs may be touchy and propogate far.  It is unlikely that they would be large enough to bury or injure a rider unless terrain traps like tight trees, cliffs, or gullies are present.  Use test slopes and hand shear tests to determine if there is an obvious weak layer beneath our latest storm snow.

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals are in the ballpark of 20-25 cm.  As I have mentioned this storm snow may have fallen on persistent weak layers in certain regions.  In many zones the new snow seems to be bonding well to the few centimeters of snow that was there Saturday and the stout crust beneath that.  This crust is a great landmark, and riders can focus their attention on the soft snow above the crust.

Regions covered