Northern New Mexico

Update 9:00 AM:  Intense periods of snowfall early this morning (a foot of snow so far) combined with moderate to strong SW winds have created very dangerous avalanche conditions at upper elevations, continued heavy snowfall throughout the day will push the avalanche danger to High near and above Treeline.  An Avalanche Warning is in effect Today through Tomorrow.      

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist and may rise to High today as new snow and strong SW winds build thicker and stiffer storm slabs across slopes.  A shallow weak and faceted snowpack that existed before recent storms will struggle to handle more weight with this latest round of snow and wind.  Both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely, with some avalanches capable of running long distances into the flats below.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. 

Snow is just beginning to fall early this morning and is expected to continue into the evening with 6 - 12 inches forecasted throughout the day. West winds are currently in the 20's gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range.    It's been an active weather week with snow totals over the 1/4 - 1/8 storms at 19 - 23 inches of snow with 2 " of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).  Strong west winds yesterday were rapidly loading slopes at upper elevations into stiffer harder slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. It's not looking like we'll get much of a break from the wind, with a high wind watch for Friday and Saturday before the next storm system enters NM on Sunday.     

A shallow, weak, and faceted snowpack that developed during the November and December dry periods is now capped by 2 to 4-foot slabs from storms over the last week. We've had natural avalanches over the last 3 days and with more snow and wind in the forecast today, we can expect that trend to continue.  Most of these natural avalanches have been size 1 to 2 on northerly and east aspects at all elevations.  These avalanches were failing on one of the two layers that now make up our persistent slab avalanche problem.  A widespread layer of fragile near-surface facets that formed on the surface is now buried by more cohesive slabs. A little bit deeper in the snowpack depth hoar and basal facets continue to linger with some avalanches stepping down to this layer near the ground. Any avalanche triggered on one of these layers would produce a large avalanche that could be able to widely across slopes or terrain features.    

In recent travels, the snowpack continues to remain reactive, with widespread cracking and collapsing and easy to moderate results in long column stability tests. Yesterday strong West winds were rapidly loading slopes into stiffer more sensitive cohesive slabs at upper elevations and were even stiffening snow at lower elevations. Avalanches will grow in size at upper elevations, but don't let your guard down in below-treeline terrain.  We've seen several natural avalanches at these elevations and control teams have produced significant results from explosive control work with an impressive amount of snow piling up in terrain traps.       

Skiing and riding conditions have improved, but unfortunately, that has also come with increased avalanche danger.  With strong winds and more snow in the forecast over the next several days expect dangerous avalanche conditions to continue through the holiday weekend. It's going to be some time before we see the avalanche danger ease and we can start stepping out onto steeper terrain.