Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Stormy weather overnight and during the day Monday will cause an increase in the avalanche danger.  As is often the case for us, the most dangerous slopes will be those up high and in open terrain that the wind has blown snow onto.  On these lee slopes Wind Slab avalanches will be likely and could be large.  On sheltered, lower elevation slopes, the danger will be dictated by the amount of new snow that has fallen.  Dry Loose avalanches will be likely and increase in size throughout the day.  Sizeable Storm Slab avalanches are also possible in this terrain once we've received a foot or so of new snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind Slab avalanches will be likely on Monday.  The forecast is calling for Strong winds from the west.  Sometimes with stronger wind speeds we see  unusual loading patterns such as wind slab formation further down slope than we are used to.  Often the best and most pleasant riding on these days is low in the terrain, but if you venture up to elevations near treeline, or decide to ride in open terrain be mindful of the Wind Slab potential.  It is best to make any observations of the wind slab problem from safe slopes that are less than 30 degrees or small enough not to hurt you.  During stormy weather, the most obvious clues are observing cracking or small avalanches on test slopes or simply seeing blowing snow.  Snow textures associated with blowing snow, as well as variable depths of new snow as you move across different aspects are also good clues.  Remember that wind deposited snow can be 3-5 times as deep as the snow that has fallen from the sky.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Falling temperatures associated with the new snow are leading me to anticipate a Dry Loose avalanche problem on Monday.  These avalanches may be too small to be much of a consideration in the morning, but will become more of a problem as more snow piles up throughout the day.  On these days it is important to build confidence slowly and ensure that you are in fact dealing with a Dry Loose avalanche problem as opposed to a Storm Slab problem; they are not always mutually exclusive.  Ski cuts on safe test slopes are really the gold standard for making this distinction.  Beyond that, managing your terrain is key.  Avoid skiing above terrain traps where even a relatively small avalanche could have greater consequences.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    By Monday afternoon we may have over a foot of new snow on the ground.  It would be foolhardy not to consider the possibility of Storm Slab avalanches.  Cooling temperatures accompanying new snowfall tend to leave us with a right-side-up snowpack.  However, mid-storm variations in atmospheric conditions and snowfall rates can still create hard over weak layering.  As I mentioned in the Dry Loose discussion, ski cuts on safe test slopes are my favorite means of determining whether or not Storm Slab conditions exist.

Avalanche Discussion

After a warm and sunny weekend, we are in need of the imminent refresh.  Most slopes that see some sun have developed a melt-freez crust.  All of our avalanche considerations on Monday will be associated with the new snow.

Regions covered