Avalanche forecast

Southern Wallowas

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New, heavy snow that fell overnight will give weaker snow (2-4' from the surface) a run for the recreationist's money today.  Triggering a destructive avalanche is likely today, with natural avalanches possible.  Stick to simple slopes less than 30 degrees, and avoid hanging out in runout zones and stay away from terrain traps.  

Avalanches will be more dangerous around Fish Lake, Sugarloaf, Clear Creek Cabin, Norway Basin, and adjacent drainages where more snow fell.

Today's forecast is sponsored by La Grande Sno-Drifters Snowmobile Club. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    There is always uncertainty about how persistent slab avalanches will react to change. We do know that any change makes them more likely to occur. The addition of new wet heavy snow and warm temperatures again today may test the balance and cause these avalanches to release. Triggering one of the 2-4' deep slabs would have disastrous consequences.

    Avoiding terrain where this problem lies is the best way to stay out of harm's way.

    We don't have extensive knowledge on how the wet heavy snow may influence weak layers now buried 2'+.  There was an observation from the Southern Wallowas by a Pro Observer of a skier-triggered avalanche yesterday on a steep rollover with rocky features.  

     

     

     

    (1/19/2024)

    Skier triggered avalanche 1/19/24 in the Southern Wallowas.

    Photo: Nick Burks

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The new snow that fell in a short period will need time to bond to the old snow surface.  If you are getting off your sled, skis, etc and you're observing greater than 6" of new snow, a storm slab is on the table.  As the height of new snow increases, so does the size of the avalanche.  The Likelihood of triggering a storm slab could increase from "possible" to "likely" today as snow continues to fall.  

Avalanche Discussion

Snow Levels will continue to rise to around 5,500 feet today. This makes wet avalanches more likely, especially in the below treeline band.  Small Wet Loose avalanches were reported two days ago in the Southern Wallowas and Elklhorns.   Expect the prevalence of this avalanche problem to increase today. Remember that even a small slide in consequential terrain can result in a poor outcome. Keep an eye out for rollerballs and pinwheels, these are the first signs of wet loose avalanches and a message that it is time to pick terrain less than 30 degrees or go home.

As mentioned above there is much uncertainty around what makes persistent slab avalanches release. When we have increased uncertainty we must increase our margins of safety. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making remain essential to avoid this avalanche problem.

Regions covered