Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard will begin as low today at all elevations and move towards Moderate as snowfall begins to accumulate.  Human triggered avalanches are possible today less than 1 foot in depth where moderate wind may create more sensitive pockets of shallow storm slabs.  Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks and collapsing.   Rain may mix with snow at low elevations creating the possibility to trigger shallow wet loose avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    A deep Pacific low begins to affect our area today with light to moderate snowfall and moderate E-SE winds forecasted.  Although, the brunt of wind and snowfall is expected to stay to the west of us.  Storm totals over the next 48 hours are forecasted to be in the 6-12 inch range with rain mixing with snow at lower elevations possible this evening.  The incoming storm is a strong one though, so it is possible that snowfall totals have been underforecasted.

    This new snow will be deposited on a combination of surface hoar and near surface facets that is fairly widespread.  This faceted snow was created by the last week of mostly clear and cold weather and will be a weak layer that the new storm slabs accumulate on.  The sensiivity of storm slabs moving forward will depend on the amount of new snow that we receive and the affect of wind on that new snow.  

    Today, snowfall accumulations are expected to be light and avalanche concerns are expected to consist of shallow wind loaded pockets of storm slab.  The most likely place to encounter this problem will be near wind channeled terrain such as the top of Thompson Pass or just below high elevation ridge lines.   Pay attention to new snowfall amounts and the effect that wind has had on that snow in the area you choose to travel.  Unstable areas of snow will likely exhibit signs of instability such as shooting cracks and collapsing.

    (1/2/2024)

    Surface Hoar and near surface facets from RFS at ~3000' 1/2

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanches will become a concern if snowfall turns to rain.  These are expected to be shallow as rain is forecasted to be light and a stout rain crust exists 4-8 inches beneath the surface up to 2000 feet.

     

Avalanche Discussion

The main thing to pay attention to today will be new snowfall amounts as precipitation is expected to begin this morning.  Moderate east winds will be building deeper pockets of storm slab on the lee side of terrain features in wind channeled terrain and high elevation ridgelines.  The avalanche hazard yesterday was Low and will begin the same way today.  The rise in hazard level will correlate directly with new snowfall amounts and the affect that wind has on that new snow. 

Hazard analysis will be fairly straightforward today.  Places where more than 8 inches of snow has accumulated today or redistributed, human triggered avalanches will be possible.

Faceted snow that formed the last week will be a possible persistent avalanche concern in the future with incremental loading. 

Valdez season snowfall: 144 inches

Valdez January snowfall: 0 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 53 inches

Thompson Pass snowfall data is currently unavalable

46 mile height of snowpack: 68 inches

Regions covered